| Massimo
Livi-Bacci's A Concise History of World Population is
the latest edition of a widely praised book first published in English
in 1992. It has been updated to include recent research and statistical
data, including a section on migration, China's family planning efforts,
the slave trade, the impact of HIV, and—perhaps most interesting—projections
of world population to 2050.
The
first three chapters deal with major concepts and issues concerning demographic
history. In chapter one, the author introduces the mechanics of
population growth, examining the biological and environmental factors
that need to be understood if we are to make sense of this important aspect
of world history. He then provides an overall picture of human population
growth, identifying three great population cycles: from the first humans
to the beginning of the Neolithic era, from the Neolithic era to the Industrial
Revolution, and from the Industrial Revolution to the present.
It is clear that the overall picture is of a remarkable demographic expansion
of humans from a fairly rare animal to our densely populated world today.
The second chapter looks at factors such as climate, disease, land, food,
energy, and settlement patterns that help explain the irregularity of
demographic history, which include periods of growth, stagnation, and
decline. A third especially valuable chapter deals with the
relationship between demographic growth and economic development.
The author introduces the various theories of population growth, from
those of the seventeenth and eighteenth century thinkers who assumed a
growing population was a sign of prosperity to the pessimists Malthus
and Ricardo and their modern successors. Livi-Bacci presents
their arguments with a wealth of historical examples that support, contradict,
or complicate the various models . He does not seem to endorse any
particular theory, but rather prefers to show the merits and complexities
of the various schools of historical demography.
The
fourth and fifth chapters deal with the most recent cycle of demographic
expansion that began in the late eighteenth century. Chapter
four examines the demographic history of Europe and, to a lesser extent,
North America and Japan. Chapter five then reviews what Livi-Bacci
regards as the very different pattern of demographic expansion of the
"poor countries" of Asia, Africa and Latin America. His central
point in these two chapters is the sharp distinction between the nature
of demographic history in the West and in the developing countries.
In Europe there were no "explosions" of population: instead, population
rose steadily in the last half of the eighteenth century and throughout
most of the nineteenth century, accompanied by a gradual decline in mortality
and modest increases in fertility. Between roughly 1880 and
1920 Western countries also saw changes in fertility rates as people began
having smaller families. This process was uneven, beginning
in France in the 1820s, moving to Italy and Russia only a century later.
The author points out that Europe's agricultural productivity was never
able to match its rapidly growing population and that it was only migration,
coupled with the opening of highly productive agricultural lands in the
Americas (along with improvements in transporting this food), that sustained
Europe's nineteenth century demographic expansion. In most
of the rest of the world, changes in modern medicine, hygiene, and transportation
that reduced the mortality rate came more suddenly than in Europe, leading
to a sharp spike in the population growth in the mid-twentieth century.
This, along with the fact that fertility rates were generally higher in
Asia, Africa, and Latin America than in the West led to population growth
rates that after 1950 were more than twice the levels ever experienced
in Europe. This then brings the author back to the issue of whether
population growth is a hindrance or help to economic growth. Again, Livi-Bacci
finds the question difficult to answer since there are so many variables,
and since the environmental and cultural situation of each society differs.
He eventually concludes with the opinion that in many countries economic
development would have been faster with slower population growth, in others
it probably made little difference, and in some population growth may
have been helpful .
The
final chapter deals with future trends, projecting population growth patterns
to 2050. He envisions a world of nine billion people, with almost
all the increase occurring in the developing world. These
figures provide a useful perspective for the world historian.
For instance, in 1950 Europe had over 21 percent of the world's population
and Africa had 8.8 percent. In 2050, this will be more than reversed with
Africa containing 21 percent of humanity and Europe only 7.2 percent.
The environmental challenges, the issues of HIV, the great migration from
poor to rich countries are concisely presented. In this chapter
he addresses the issue of whether or not there is a maximum sustainable
size—is there in fact a limit to how many people the planet can support?
After reviewing the varied opinions on the topic, Livi-Bacci concludes
that the idea of maximum sustainable size has "so many conceptual difficulties
as to be virtually useless for predictive purposes." (205)
At the end of the book he departs from the careful neutrality presented
earlier by suggesting that we may have trouble increasing food production.
He explained that ninety-two percent of our increased agricultural output
since 1950 has come from intensification of existing land, since almost
all cultivated land had been developed by that date. In the
past, population growth did provide economies of scale that made the production
of goods and services more efficient, but he argues that it is "likely
that we are entering a historical phase-of indeterminate length- during
which population growth will cease to provide economies of scale and may
well produce overwhelming diseconomies." (p.220).
Livi-Bacci's
skill at explaining complex demographic issues makes this a book accessible
to any non-specialist and probably to undergraduate students as well.
Major points are clarified by a rich and fascinating variety of historical
examples such as the remarkably prolific French Canadians, the birth control
policies of India, and the author's own research on the Black Plague in
Tuscany. There are also many useful charts and graphs.
The book does, however, have its limitations. While the author
draws on research findings from around the world, there is much more on
Europe than elsewhere. The very short bibliography is inadequate
as a guide to further reading, and the book may be too detailed on demographic
patterns for it to be used as a text in undergraduate courses.
Nonetheless , A Concise History of World Population should
be an indispensable reference for every teacher and researcher of world
history. |
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